The export surge was the fastest since October 2021, according to research, and represented the biggest gain in four years. Analysts noted that the Lunar New Year holiday, which distorts data, could not fully account for the surprisingly strong performance. China combines January and February trade data to avoid such distortions, a practice reported by multiple media outlets.
The growth was driven by strong global demand for tech products and AI-related investments, according to Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the EIU, and Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group. Semiconductor exports rose 66.5% annually, the fastest growth in over a decade, research shows. China also exported a record amount of solar equipment in March 2026, more than double February's amount and 49% higher than the previous peak in August 2025, according to Climate Home News and analysis by Ember. Three-quarters of these solar equipment exports went to Africa and Asia, and the March shipments are enough to produce 68 GW, equivalent to Spain's total solar production, multiple reports said. Dan Wang, director for China at Eurasia Group, noted there is big demand for China's 'New Three': electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
The rapid trade growth occurred before the US-Israeli attack on Iran, which started on 28 February 2026 and severely disrupted global energy supplies, according to multiple media reports. The surge in import value is likely due to rising global costs from the Iran war, according to economics lecturer Yixiao Zhou. It is still too soon to know whether US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will derail manufacturers, economists said.
China's exports to the US in January and February fell 11% compared to the same period in 2025, according to Peking's customs data. In March 2026, China exported $29.4 billion to the US, multiple reports said. President Trump's renewed 2025 tariffs barely slowed China's industrial momentum, as manufacturers redirected exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, research shows. Exports to other partners rose strongly: to Japan 8.9%, to Hong Kong 38.7%, to South Korea 27.0%, to Taiwan 28.7%, to Australia 29.4%, to ASEAN 29.4%, and to the EU 27.8%, according to research.
China acknowledges its trading partners' concerns about the record surplus and aims for balanced import-export development.
Domestic economic indicators showed mixed signals. Industrial production rose 6.3% in January-February 2026 year-on-year, the fastest since September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Retail sales increased 2.8% in January-February 2026, more than three times the December rate, Bloomberg reported. Fixed asset investments grew 1.8% in January-February 2026, after shrinking for the first time in 2025, Bloomberg said. Economists had expected retail growth of 2.5% and industrial production growth of 5%. Tourist spending during the Chinese New Year rose nearly 19% compared to the previous year, according to multiple reports. Infrastructure investments increased by over 11% in January-February 2026, the fastest since 2021, Bloomberg reported. Economists at think tank CF40 in Beijing say the rapid recovery shows macroeconomic policy is actively providing support. China set a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%, the lowest in decades, the Chinese government said. GDP grew 5% in the first quarter of 2026 year-on-year, according to official data, while economists had expected around 4.8%. China's National People's Congress pledged measures to support weak consumption but provided few details, the Chinese government said.
China achieved a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025, according to multiple reports. Trade Minister Wang Wentao said at a press conference that China acknowledges its trading partners' concerns about the record surplus and aims for balanced import-export development. The data reinforces policymakers' conviction that heavier investment in strategic sectors will lock in China's grip on global supply chains, research shows. China's resilient exports and lower 2026 GDP growth target could delay the rollout of economic stimulus, analysts said.
Export growth slowed to 2.5% in March 2026 year-on-year, according to the General Administration of Customs. The monthly trade surplus in March was just over $50 billion, the lowest in over a year, multiple reports said. China's import growth in March was 27.8%, versus 14% expected by Bloomberg analysts. Sales of refined oil products rose 12.7% to 8.13 million tons, research shows. China stockpiled key commodities including iron ore and crude oil in the first two months of the year, according to research. The export momentum could accelerate further in the near term due to factories rushing shipments to the US to exploit tariff reprieve and Chinese firms muscling back into low value-added sectors, Xu Tianchen said.
China-North Korea trade surged 22% in the first two months of 2026, according to customs data. Two-way trade reached $418.7 million in January and February 2026, China's General Administration of Customs reported. China's trade with North Korea rebounded to pre-Covid levels in 2025, with full-year volumes of $2.73 billion, multiple reports said. China's imports from North Korea jumped to $89.2 million in January-February 2026 from $65 million a year earlier, according to multiple reports. China and North Korea restarted inter-capital train service on 12 March 2026, multiple reports said.
The outlook remains uncertain. Whether the momentum lasts will depend largely on how long the AI-driven tech boom continues, Larry Hu said. Rapidly rising global defence spending could lift external demand for Chinese industrial goods, Dan Wang noted. The impact of US tariffs, the Iran conflict, and the sustainability of the AI boom are key unknowns.