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Ceasefire Holds as Iran and US Seek Strait Deal

Conflict & warConflict
Ceasefire Holds as Iran and US Seek Strait Deal
Key Points
  • A fragile ceasefire between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition holds, with diplomatic efforts ongoing to extend it and secure a lasting peace.
  • Conflicting signals emerge over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran claiming it is open but imposing restrictions and creating a new authority to control passage.
  • International efforts focus on a defensive naval coalition to secure the strait after the war, with France and the UK leading, while the US pushes Project Freedom.

The temporary truce, which paused fighting until April 22, was accompanied by a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that entered its first full day. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad remains in continuous contact with Iran and the US to stop the war and extend the ceasefire. Pakistan-led mediators are working to bridge significant gaps between the two sides, according to a regional official involved in mediation.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi briefed European capitals on Iran's offer regarding its highly enriched uranium stockpile and future stewardship of the strait during talks in Islamabad, and later held phone briefings with the French, German, Saudi, Omani, and Qatari foreign ministers. Araghchi also traveled to Russia for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. Trump said talks over a deal to end the war would 'probably' be held this weekend, but he canceled plans for his top envoys to travel to Islamabad after Iran insisted the US end its blockade first.

Iran did not regard the Pakistan-led process as exhausted even after 21 hours of intensive talks.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed Middle East peace efforts at the Vatican with Pope Leo XIV. Conflicting signals emerged over the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's foreign minister said the strait is now fully open to commercial vessels, but Iranian state television quoted a senior military official saying commercial vessels would be allowed through only along a determined route and with IRGC navy permission.

Iran created a government agency, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, to vet and tax vessels seeking passage, positioning itself as the only valid authority to grant permission. A senior Iranian lawmaker, Ebrahim Azizi, said Iran will never give up control of the strait and called it an 'inalienable right', adding that a bill is being introduced in parliament to enshrine Iran's control. Azizi described the strait as 'one of our assets to face the enemy', according to BBC News - World.

There is a broad international consensus to preserve freedom of navigation.

Jean-Noël Barrot, French Foreign Minister

On Saturday, Iran reversed its decision to open the strait, citing the US blockade of its ports, and several merchant vessels reported gunfire as they attempted to cross. Maritime traffic had ground to a halt since the war began on February 28, and the IRGC issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage. The strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, forming a passage between Iran and Oman, and Iran's closure constitutes a violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

International efforts to secure the strait are coalescing around a defensive naval coalition. French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Tuesday the creation of a coalition to secure vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and said the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will reposition to the Mediterranean. A meeting of the coalition of nonbelligerent states took place in Paris on Friday, attended by German and Italian leaders Friedrich Merz and Giorgia Meloni, and representatives from about 50 countries and international organizations.

Iran will never give up control of the Strait of Hormuz. It is an inalienable right.

Ebrahim Azizi, senior Iranian lawmaker

The mood was one of caution. The G7 has agreed to protect passage only after the war ends, and an international mission to escort vessels will operate 'once calm has been restored' and 'in a strictly defensive posture', according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. The EU is calling for the Black Sea grain model to be used to unblock the strait, according to EU special envoy Luigi Di Maio, and is offering solidarity and support to GCC countries, including equipment for self-defence.

Macron ordered additional air defence assets and a French frigate to be sent to Cyprus, and the EU announced the reinforcement of its maritime security operation EUNAVFOR Aspides. Trump lashed out at European and NATO countries for refusing to set up a maritime mission along Hormuz, and Secretary of State Rubio implied the White House could disengage from efforts to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine due to Europe's refusal. Rubio later clarified the US was asking allies to prepare a multi-national mission for after the war, not immediate deployment, and said his message had a 'good reception'.

The strait is one of our assets to face the enemy.

Ebrahim Azizi, senior Iranian lawmaker

US actions remain focused on Project Freedom, an effort to reopen the strait. The US Secretary of State stated that the goal is to return the strait 'back to the way it was'. Trump said the US blockade of Iranian ports and shipping will remain in place for the moment.

US Central Command said it has turned around 38 ships during the blockade and that Project Freedom is underway, with the US reaching out to individual vessels to prod them into crossing. Trump suspended an attempt by the US military to open a safe passage for commercial ships, and an official in Saudi Arabia said the kingdom refused to support Trump's effort to reopen the strait by force. The US will offer naval convoys and political risk insurance for ships transporting energy and other commodities, according to Trump.

The US is the biggest pirate in the world. Gulf states sold our region to the Americans.

Ebrahim Azizi, senior Iranian lawmaker

The economic and humanitarian toll is mounting. Oil prices were up Monday as the standoff remained despite the ceasefire. Brent crude oil prices surpassed US$100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 for the first time in four years, rising to US$126 per barrel at its peak.

The closure has been described as the largest disruption to the energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis. About 20% of the world's oil and gas normally passes through the strait, and traffic plunged by 94% following the outbreak of war. Tanker traffic dropped by approximately 70% and over 150 ships anchored outside the strait to avoid risks.

Trump's claims are cognitive warfare aiming to create 'chronic systemic paralysis'.

Mohamed Amersi, member of the Global Advisory Council at the Wilson Centre

As of 12 March 2026, Iran has made 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships. At least 3,375 people have been killed in Iran and 2,509 in Lebanon since the war began. French airline Transavia canceled some flights due to rising fuel costs, and China opposed a US decision to sanction one of its refineries for purchasing Iranian crude.

Di Maio said the blockade is becoming a humanitarian crisis affecting not just oil and gas but also fertilisers and helium, and that Europe has no problem with quantities of fossil fuels due to resilience investments but is affected by global price dynamics. In 2024, an estimated 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments through the strait were destined for Asian markets, and Europe gets 12% to 14% of its LNG from Qatar through the strait. Iran's internal dynamics and nuclear program add complexity.

Iran is a country in transition with the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei not yet having established his authority.

Ali Ansari, professor at St Andrews

Trump claimed infighting between moderates and hardliners is so intense that the country has 'no idea who their leader is', but many Iranian experts questioned this analysis, saying Iran has shown remarkable institutional cohesion despite assassinations. Mohamed Amersi described Trump's claims as cognitive warfare aiming to create 'chronic systemic paralysis', according to The Guardian - World. Ali Ansari said Iran is a country in transition with the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei not yet having established his authority, while Ali Alfoneh noted Iran had been moving towards more collective leadership in the final years of Ali Khamenei's life.

Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Mohsen Rezaee, an opponent of a ceasefire, as military adviser. Hassan Ahmadian denied any fractures, citing institutional resilience. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave only qualified support to Araghchi's pledge.

Iran had been moving towards more collective leadership in the final years of Ali Khamenei's life.

Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute

Iran offered to end its chokehold on the strait without addressing its nuclear program, according to officials with knowledge of the proposal, and wants the US to end its blockade. Trump said Iran agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear programme and would not receive any frozen funds, and told Reuters that Washington would work with Iran to recover its enriched uranium and move it to the US. Broader regional implications are unfolding.

A document attributed to US envoy Tom Barrack outlines a proposal to reposition Syria as a key transit hub for global energy flows via pipelines, including reviving the Kirkuk–Baniyas oil pipeline and the Qatar–Turkey gas pipeline. ' However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in a video that Israel was not done yet with Hezbollah, and an Israeli drone strike killed one person in southern Lebanon after the truce began. Shipping associations warn that risks to shipping remain elevated despite Project Freedom, and the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center maintained that the maritime security threat level is critical.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption began on 28 February 2026 following joint US-Israeli military strikes on Iran, including the killing of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military bases, Israeli territory, and Gulf states. Iran will urge countries with minesweeper equipment to resist pressure from Washington to start clearing mines from the strait. Leaders are expected to discuss how free navigation can be ensured once the conflict is over, and the meeting agenda also includes the economic challenges facing the shipping industry and the safety of over 20,000 stranded seafarers and merchant vessels stuck in the strait.

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