In a speech to the Australian parliament in Canberra, Carney advocated for middle powers to act as 'strategic cousins' rather than competitors to negotiate more effectively with superpowers, including Donald Trump's America. He signaled a desire to break dependence on the USA, a theme he highlighted in a noted speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year. Carney said that in a post-rupture world, nations that are trusted and can work together will be more effective and secure.
Carney softened his support for US and Israeli strikes on Iran in a speech to the Lowy Institute in Sydney, stating he did not believe the attacks were legal and they represent another example of the failure of the international order. He said the strikes appeared to be unlawful because they were not made with UN Security Council support or in the face of imminent threat. Carney remarked that the action lacked consultation and broader process, appearing inconsistent with international law.
Carney has won praise worldwide for pushing renewed middle-power diplomacy, calling time on the international rules-based order, and urging countries like Australia, Japan, India, South Korea, and Canada to band together. His speech at Davos in January was seen as the strongest pushback on the Trump administration and other superpowers like China, urging countries to pivot to protect and enhance national sovereignty. Carney stated that the question for middle powers is whether they preserve existing rules, write new ones, or let great powers dictate outcomes.
In practical terms, Carney announced that Australia will join the G7 critical minerals alliance, the largest grouping of democratic countries with major reserves in the world. Canada and Australia produce 34% of global lithium stocks, 32% of uranium supply, and 41% of iron ore, giving them significant resource dominance. Carney explained that in this new world, they should be strategic collaborators to boost investments and enhance supply chain resilience.
On defence and security, Carney said Canada and Australia are correct to build up capabilities, including next-generation drones, surveillance aircraft, cyber, and AI tools. He added that countries will be required to provide robust security guarantees to stop conflict in Europe as members of the international coalition planning for peace in Ukraine after the war ends. The specific new coalitions or alliances being proposed beyond the G7 critical minerals alliance remain unclear, as do the concrete steps for holding great powers accountable as responsible stakeholders in the international order.
Contextually, Canada is in a situation with striking similarities to Finland's position relative to the Soviet Union after World War II, sharing a long, hard-to-monitor border with a military superpower with territorial ambitions. Meanwhile, Australia remains reliant on Washington's presence and military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, and much of its military hardware cannot function without the US. How Canada plans to practically reduce its dependence on the United States given its geographical and economic ties is an open question, as are the detailed implications for Australia's defence strategy if it hedges against US reliance while maintaining the alliance.
Australia's stance contrasts with Carney's criticism, as Canberra has expressed support for recent US and Israeli strikes in Tehran, while not participating in them. Middle powers are defined as countries like Japan, Australia, Canada, and South Korea, which have economic heft but not to the extent of superpowers like China and the US. How variable geometry coalitions will be implemented for different issues based on common values and interests is another unknown in this evolving geopolitical landscape.