The debate comes as mail ballots are slated to reach voters early next month ahead of the June 2 primary, according to major media reports. Under California's unique election rules, only the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the November general election. This system has fueled months of anxiety among Democrats, who fear a crowded field could inadvertently lead to two Republicans securing the spots. A scenario with two Republicans advancing would represent a historic setback for the famously progressive state, major media notes.
The debate will feature the two leading Republican hopefuls, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. It will also include four prominent Democrats: former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, former Biden administration health secretary Xavier Becerra, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. The 90-minute event could easily devolve into a series of heated exchanges and verbal attacks, according to major media, with each candidate hoping for a pivotal moment in a chaotic and leaderless race.
This debate follows a period of significant instability in the campaign. U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell, previously a leading Democratic contender, withdrew from the race and Congress following sexual assault allegations, which he denies. Another Democrat, former state controller Betty Yee, exited the contest on Monday after consistently lagging in polls since entering in 2024. Yee subsequently endorsed Tom Steyer, while Xavier Becerra received a notable endorsement from Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas on Tuesday.
Becerra and Mahan were late additions to the debate lineup after Swalwell's departure, according to major media. Both have since garnered fresh attention and endorsements in the reordered contest. Mahan, in particular, has been actively rolling out advertising campaigns to bolster his standing, major media reports.
Democrats largely align on key policy issues, such as reducing household costs and countering President Donald Trump's agenda, but they will be searching for distinct ways to stand out on stage. This could involve highlighting their own records or scrutinizing those of their rivals, major media indicates. Katie Porter, known for her viral use of a whiteboard during congressional hearings, could become the state's first woman governor. Tom Steyer is a hedge fund manager turned liberal activist who mounted an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2020 and is recognized for his focus on climate issues.
Xavier Becerra is the most seasoned politician among the group, having served in the Biden administration, as a state attorney general, a congressman, and a state legislator. Matt Mahan has emphasized his efforts to combat homelessness and crime during his tenure leading Northern California's largest city. California itself is expected to be a central theme in the debate, according to major media.
Confusion surrounds the debate schedule, as a separate California gubernatorial debate was held on Tuesday night, hosted by the Black Action Alliance with KTVU and KTTV Fox 11, according to research from seven sources. Seven candidates participated in that Tuesday debate: Antonio Villaraigosa, Matt Mahan, Betty Yee, Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer, and Tony Thurmond. During that event, Steve Hilton and Matt Mahan disagreed over housing taxes, research shows.
The Wednesday debate could see similar heated exchanges, with policy disagreements likely to emerge among the six candidates. It remains unclear what specific policy disagreements will dominate or how recent endorsements might impact voter preferences and polling numbers. Current polling data showing the likelihood of two Republicans advancing to the November election is also not publicly available.
The debate occurs against a backdrop of rising political violence in the U.S., which has increased in the last five years, including threats against election officials and the January 6 Capitol attack, according to research from seven sources. A third of poll workers surveyed in April 2021 felt unsafe, and 79% wanted government-provided security, a survey by the Brennan Center for Justice found. Most political violence in the U.S. is committed by individuals not belonging to formal organizations, per the Global Terrorism Database from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Security measures for the Wednesday debate have not been detailed publicly.
Celebrity political influence adds another layer to the race. Cultural expectations have shifted so that celebrities are now expected to share their political opinions, according to experts. Celebrity endorsements may influence voter turnout rather than change policy minds, per experts. For example, Taylor Swift's Instagram endorsement of Kamala Harris led to about 400,000 clicks on a voter information website, research from seven sources indicates. How celebrity endorsements, if any, might specifically affect voter turnout in the California gubernatorial primary is unknown.
Several celebrities, including Sharon Stone, Cher, Barbra Streisand, and Bryan Cranston, have threatened to leave the U.S. if Donald Trump is elected or re-elected, research from seven sources shows. Many celebrities who threatened to leave over Trump have not followed through, and Miley Cyrus walked back her 2016 threat to leave the U.S. if Trump was elected. This dynamic reflects broader tensions in American politics, where high-profile figures often weigh in on electoral outcomes.
As the debate approaches, voter outreach efforts are intensifying. Mail ballots reaching voters early next month will be crucial in a state where turnout can be unpredictable. Mahan's advertising campaigns represent one effort to connect with voters in the final stretch. The outcome could hinge on whether candidates can effectively differentiate themselves in a crowded field where Democrats risk splitting their vote.
Unknowns persist beyond policy disagreements and endorsement impacts. The effects of celebrity endorsements on turnout remain speculative, and security protocols for the debate have not been disclosed. With the primary just weeks away, the Wednesday debate offers a critical opportunity for candidates to reshape a race that remains highly fluid and unpredictable.