In the book 'The Last Lie – Estonia and the Russian Spy's Legacy', Patrik Oksanen and Andreas Edevald show that much of the conspiracy theories can be traced to one person: Anton Surikov, a colonel in the GRU. The core of the book is the so-called Felix Report, written by Surikov in early 1995. Outwardly, it appears that a serious research group is behind it, but the authors show that it is a facade created by the intelligence service. According to Aftonbladet, Andreas Edevald described the report as alleging that Chechen criminals and high-ranking Estonians used Estonia to smuggle drugs and radioactive materials. The main target of the report was Estonia, as part of a larger influence campaign.
The story from the GRU was packaged in a way that made it changeable, but the core was that it involved a cover-up, according to Aftonbladet, which cited Patrik Oksanen. The report was reproduced in Russian and Estonian media and then became central in reporting in the German Der Spiegel, which interviewed Surikov. According to Aftonbladet, Patrik Oksanen described how both the cause of why the ship sinks and what is smuggled changes, with Surikov involved in implanting the change.
We dare probably say that we would have had a different public opinion about M/S Estonia without the GRU's contribution.
The conspiracy theories live their own life, and the distrust has continued to live on since then and reappeared in various forms, not least in Discovery's documentary 'The Find That Changes Everything'. According to the authors, Discovery's documentary has clear echoes from Surikov. According to Aftonbladet, Patrik Oksanen described that the theories have drawn energy and strength from something that chafes, with the Felix Report and the GRU contributing to this to the highest degree.
In contrast, the cause of the disaster was clear relatively quickly: a bow visor that came loose in heavy seas. Shortly after the accident, few Swedes believed in theories about a cover-up, but the distrust came later. This shift highlights the long-term impact of the misinformation campaign.
Briefly, the report says that Chechen criminals and high-ranking Estonians use Estonia to smuggle drugs and radioactive materials. Then they get information that customs plans a raid that night. Therefore, they must open the bow visor and drive out the trucks with radioactive materials, that's why the ship sinks.
How much influence the Felix Report and Surikov actually had is difficult to say, reflecting uncertainties about the full extent of the GRU's influence campaign targeting Estonia. Other unknowns include whether other intelligence services or actors were involved in spreading conspiracy theories about the Estonia disaster, and the specific methods used by the GRU to disseminate the Felix Report and related theories in international media. According to Aftonbladet, Patrik Oksanen described that without the GRU's contribution, public opinion about M/S Estonia would likely have been different.
Then both the cause of why she sinks and what is smuggled changes. There, Surikov is also involved in implanting the change.
It has drawn energy and strength from something that chafes. The Felix Report and the GRU have contributed to this to the highest degree.