6% per year, with government forecasts suggesting it could reach $60-70 billion by the end of the decade unless growth is restrained. 3% last year, above the federal government's target rate of 8%, and without changes, it had been due to soar past $63 billion by 2028-29. The government has flagged plans in the May budget to rein in NDIS growth, targeting a reduction in annual increases from around 8% to a more manageable 5%.
Labor has established an NDIS Sustainability Taskforce within the health department earlier this year to advise on cost-cutting options for the $52 billion program, led by former Treasury official Anthea Long. The government is working to bring NDIS spending growth down to between 5% and 6% annually, with changes expected to be part of the May budget. Fraud, non-compliance, and inappropriate payments may account for up to 10% of the NDIS, costing taxpayers as much as $5 billion a year.
In 2023-24, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook projected welfare spending would reach $287 billion by 2026-27, but the latest update now puts the figure at $303 billion for the same year.