Angela Rayner warns Labour is running out of time for change

In a wide-ranging speech to the Mainstream group, a centre-left organisation associated with Labour, Angela Rayner delivered her strongest criticism of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to date. She warned that Labour cannot 'go through the motions in the face of decline' and urged him to change direction or face defeat at the ballot box. Rayner claimed her workers’ and renters’ rights reforms were among Labour’s achievements in government, but argued the public views Labour as having 'represented the establishment' rather than challenging it. 'There’s no safe ground for us, and we’re running out of time,' she said, adding, 'The change that people wanted so desperately to see needs to be seen.'

Rayner's speech represented one of her most significant interventions, reigniting speculation she is preparing to challenge Starmer for the top job. She specifically criticized Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's immigration crackdown as 'un-British', arguing that moving the goalposts on immigration undermines fair play. According to Rayner, there are people who now 'fear for their future' due to the prospect of the government 'moving the goalposts'. Her intervention is considered part of efforts to encourage the prime minister to move his policy platform to the left following defeat to the Green Party at last month's Gorton and Denton by-election.

The immigration reforms at the centre of the controversy would double the time it takes most migrant workers to qualify for permanent residence from five years to ten years. In the case of refugees, it could take twenty years to qualify for permanent residence, according to multiple reports. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is hoping to apply the change retrospectively to more than two million migrants who arrived from 2021 to 2024 under Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit immigration system. Settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain, gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like and apply for benefits if they are eligible. The Home Office has said its figures show net migration added 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024.

Government ambiguity has fueled the controversy, with the prime minister's press secretary refusing to explicitly confirm commitment to introducing the key plank of planned immigration reforms on Wednesday afternoon. When asked if the government's plan is still to extend the period before people can apply for indefinite leave to remain, the press secretary did not directly answer, instead stating the government would consider responses to the consultation and respond. He said the government had set out the principles that people who had worked, paid their taxes and made a bigger contribution should have a faster route to settlement. Pressed on whether he was opening the door to a potential watering down, the press secretary said that as with all consultations, the government would consider responses before responding 'in due course'. The Home Office later clarified it was consulting to apply the change to those currently in the UK who have not received settled status, with a spokesperson stating, 'The government will double the route to settlement from five to 10 years.'

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has described the reforms as 'fair and required to avoid a drain on our public finances'. However, dozens of Labour MPs have threatened to vote against the changes in a major rebellion, with some expressing concerns about the proposals. This internal dissent comes as Sir Keir Starmer has been forced into more than a dozen about-turns on major policies, with Labour rebels forcing his hand to lift the two-child benefit cap and abandon billions of pounds of cuts to welfare spending.

Market analysts warn that a Rayner leadership could erode investor confidence and increase government borrowing costs. Capital Economics analyst Joe Maher suggested Rayner could add 20 basis points to gilt yields and cause sterling to fall 1% against the euro. These warnings emerge as the UK faces significant economic pressures, with the cost of government borrowing surpassing the level seen at the mini budget and hitting a high last seen in 2008.

The government's borrowing costs have surged amid inflation fears, with shock at the prospect of consumers paying £332 more on their energy bills from July sharpening concerns over how much inflation will rise. Some economists envisage circumstances where inflation could reach 5%, up from the current 3%, while traders are pricing in three interest rate hikes this year. Interest rate hikes are expected in April, July and November, which if they come to pass will bring the base borrowing cost to 4.5%. The government's borrowing cost, as well as news that borrowing cost the state £5bn more in February than a year earlier, led investors to demand more to lend to the government. The interest rate the government pays on 10-year gilts hit 4.9% on Friday afternoon, the highest level since the financial crash, with this rate serving as the benchmark for government borrowing costs.

Rayner's political position remains complicated by her tax affairs, having been forced to resign from government for failing to pay the right amount of stamp duty on her property. She resigned from Cabinet in September after a Telegraph investigation into her tax affairs, though the specific evidence or details involved in the HMRC investigation remain unknown. Sources close to Rayner say the HMRC investigation into her tax affairs will be dealt with in time for the May 7 elections, though Rayner is reportedly frustrated by the length of the investigation, with this disagreement suggesting uncertainty about whether her tax issues will be resolved before key elections.

Internal Labour criticism has emerged regarding Rayner's competence and public perception. According to HuffPost UK, a former aide criticized Rayner's competence, citing her inability to resolve the Birmingham bin strike. Another Labour source told HuffPost UK that most voters think Rayner doesn't pay her tax. These concerns come as Sir Keir Starmer is expected to face a challenge after the local elections in May, where Labour is set to lose hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and the Greens.

Labour MP Karl Turner told HuffPost UK that if Labour does badly in May elections, Starmer will face a challenge. This potential leadership contest looms as Rayner is widely seen as a potential successor to Sir Keir in the event of a leadership contest. The exact number of Labour MPs actively planning to rebel against the immigration reforms, and their identities, remains unclear.

Foreign policy developments have added to the government's challenges, with the UK releasing their side of a call between Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. A Foreign Office spokesperson says Yvette Cooper condemned Iran's reckless attacks including on Gulf partners and critical energy infrastructure, called for the immediate restoration of freedom of navigation, and reiterated a joint call with France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on all attacks on civilian infrastructure. Cooper made clear that the UK wants to see a swift resolution to this conflict, warned Iran against targeting UK bases, territory or interests directly, and restated the UK’s focus on regional stability and security.

The Iranian side of the call was released this morning, with the regime stating that Abbas Araghchi told Yvette Cooper the UK was 'participating in aggression' by letting the US use UK bases like RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to attack Iran. This diplomatic exchange highlights tensions in the Strait of Hormuz region, a critical global energy chokepoint.

Amid these political battles, Andy Burnham has backed Rayner's criticism, with the Mayor of Greater Manchester telling City AM that Labour should listen to her. According to Daily Mail - News, Burnham called Angela Rayner 'Queen of the North'. Major media reports indicate Burnham and Rayner have reached a private agreement not to run against each other in a leadership contest, though the exact terms of this private agreement remain unknown. The two were spotted holding secret late-night talks at her home, according to multiple sources.

Rayner is actively repositioning herself politically, with major media reports indicating she is planning a campaign tour ahead of local elections to boost her profile. Friends and allies say she has cut down on drinking to craft a more stateswoman-like persona, while reports indicate she is set to launch a podcast named 'Beyond the Bubble' to broaden her appeal. These moves come as she delivered her speech in a Westminster pub on Tuesday night.

According to Daily Express - Politics, Nick Thomas-Symonds shared Rayner's 'impatience with the pace of change' but hadn't seen the full context of her remarks. Meanwhile, Conservative criticism has been sharp, with Sir James Cleverly telling Daily Express - Politics that Angela Rayner would be a 'disaster for the country'.

Rayner's broader political context positions her as a potential Starmer successor amid Labour policy reversals. She argued that Sir Keir should be 'proud, not embarrassed' by Labour’s values, saying he should not have to be 'dragged' into doing the right thing. What specific measures Rayner is proposing for Labour to change course and avoid defeat in upcoming elections remains unclear, but her speech made clear she believes 'the very survival of the Labour Party is at stake'.