Angela Rayner warns Labour is running out of time

In her strongest criticism of the Prime Minister to date, Angela Rayner urged him to change direction or face defeat at the ballot box. Her comments came in a speech to Mainstream, a soft-Left pressure group with ties to Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester. The speech represents one of her most significant interventions and will reignite speculation that Angela Rayner is preparing to challenge Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the top job. Angela Rayner warned that Labour is 'running out of time' to deliver change and that the party's survival is at stake.

Angela Rayner's comments have been taken as a swipe at the Labour leadership and added to speculation she is planning a return to the frontbenches or to take over from Keir Starmer. Angela Rayner is widely seen as a potential successor to Sir Keir in the event of a leadership contest. Andy Burnham dubbed Angela Rayner 'Queen of the North' at a charity event, fueling speculation of a joint leadership ticket. Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner have reached a private agreement not to run against each other, with potential for a joint campaign. Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham were spotted holding secret late-night talks at her constituency home, adding to leadership speculation.

Angela Rayner is planning a campaign tour ahead of local elections to boost her profile as a 'political street fighter'. Angela Rayner has cut down on drinking to craft a more stateswoman-like persona, according to friends. Angela Rayner is set to launch a podcast named 'Beyond the Bubble' to broaden her appeal for a potential leadership contest. Angela Rayner was forced to resign last September after failing to pay £40,000 in stamp duty on a property. Sources close to Rayner say the HMRC investigation into her tax affairs will be dealt with in time for the UK-wide elections on May 7.

Nick Thomas-Symonds shared Rayner's 'impatience with the pace of change' but had not seen the full context of her remarks. Andy Burnham backed Rayner's criticism, saying he understands her frustration and that Labour should listen to her. Angela Rayner's intervention is considered part of efforts to encourage the prime minister to move his policy platform to the left following defeat to the Green Party at last month's Gorton and Denton by-election. Sir Keir Starmer is expected to face a challenge after the local elections in May, where Labour is set to lose hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and the Greens. Sir Keir Starmer has been forced into more than a dozen about-turns on major policies, with Labour rebels forcing his hand to lift the two-child benefit cap and abandon billions of pounds of cuts to welfare spending.

Market analysts warn that a Rayner leadership could erode investors' confidence and lead to higher government borrowing costs, with potential impacts on gilt yields and the sterling pound. The government's borrowing cost, as well as news this morning that borrowing cost the state £5bn more in February than a year earlier, led investors to demand more to lend to the government. The interest rate, or yield, the government pays on loans issued to it for 10 years, known as gilts, hit 4.9% on Friday afternoon, the highest level since the financial crash. It is the interest rate on these 10-year loans that is the benchmark for government borrowing costs.

Government borrowing costs are set to total around £110bn in the current financial year, up from about £60bn before the pandemic. The cost of UK government borrowing has surpassed the level seen at the mini budget and hit a high last seen in 2008. Shock at the prospect of consumers paying £332 more on their energy bills from July has sharpened fears over how much inflation will go up. Some economists envisage circumstances where inflation could reach 5%, up from the current 3%. Traders are pricing in three interest rate hikes this year. If they come to pass, these hikes, expected in April, July and November, will bring the base borrowing cost to 4.5%.

Angela Rayner called immigration plans to double the time for permanent residency 'un-British' and a breach of trust. Ministers want to double the time it takes most migrant workers to qualify for permanent residence from five years to 10 years, while in the case of refugees it could take 20 years. Shabana Mahmood is hoping to double the time it takes for most migrants to qualify for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) from five to 10 years.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has described the reforms as 'fair' and required to avoid a 'drain on our public finances'. The prime minister's press secretary would not explicitly say the government was committed to introducing the key plank of planned immigration reforms, saying instead that it would consider responses to the consultation and respond. The Home Office clarified that it was consulting to apply the change to those who are currently in the UK but who have not received settled status. Settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain, gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like and apply for benefits if they are eligible. The Home Office has said its figures show net migration added 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024.

Some Labour MPs have expressed concerns about the migration proposals. Dozens of Labour MPs have threatened to vote against the migration changes in a major rebellion. Shabana Mahmood hopes to apply the change retrospectively to more than two million migrants who arrived from 2021 to 2024 under Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit immigration system.

The UK government released their side of the call between Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. A spokesperson for the Foreign Office said Yvette Cooper condemned Iran's reckless attacks including on Gulf partners and critical energy infrastructure, and Iran's disruption and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yvette Cooper called for the immediate restoration of freedom of navigation. Yvette Cooper reiterated the joint call with France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on all attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations. Yvette Cooper made clear that defensive UK operations in the region were a response to Iranian aggression against Gulf partner countries who had not attacked Iran.

Yvette Cooper called on Iran to immediately stop reckless strikes against its neighbours. Yvette Cooper made clear that the UK wants to see a swift resolution to this conflict. Yvette Cooper warned Iran against targeting UK bases, territory or interests directly and restated the UK’s focus on regional stability and security. The Iranian side of the call was released this morning. The Iranian regime stated that Abbas Araghchi had told Yvette Cooper the UK was 'participating in aggression' by letting the US use UK bases like RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to attack Iran.

Three victims of Provisional IRA bombings in England have discontinued their damages claim against former Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams. Their lawyers told London's High Court the claim was discontinued.

The exact status and timeline of the HMRC investigation into Angela Rayner's tax affairs remains unclear. Specific evidence supporting the claim that Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner have a private agreement not to run against each other has not been publicly disclosed. The scale of the Labour rebellion against the migration reforms, including how many MPs are actively planning to vote against them, is not yet known. The full content and context of the call between Yvette Cooper and Abbas Araghchi, beyond the released summaries, has not been made public. Details of the 'secret late-night talks' between Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham have not been revealed.