With only two prime ministerial candidates expected in the autumn election — Magdalena Andersson and Ulf Kristersson — the race is tightening. According to DN/Ipsos, 36% of respondents want Andersson as next prime minister, though her support has declined compared to November 2023. Kristersson's support has dropped to 16% from 22% in summer 2022, while Jimmie Åkesson's has risen to 15% from 12% over the same period. Most voters want the Social Democrats in the next government, followed by the Moderates. The Liberals are the least desired party in government, with only one in five voters wanting them.
Trust measurements show a narrowing gap. Verian reports that Andersson's trust advantage over Kristersson has shrunk to 4 percentage points from 26 points four years ago. Per Söderpalm, opinion manager at Verian, said that trust in Andersson no longer gives the Social Democrats the same relative strength, noting her trust is now only 4 points higher than Kristersson's, compared to a 26-point gap four years ago. Tidö voters' trust in Andersson has decreased, according to Söderpalm. Kristersson has the second highest trust among voters, followed by Jimmie Åkesson in third and Ebba Busch. According to Verian, Simona Mohamsson has the lowest trust but has increased in this measurement. Nooshi Dadgostar increased the most in trust, according to Novus/TV4.
Compared to the previous measurement from November last year, there is a clear decline for Magdalena Andersson, but she is still at the same level as before the 2022 election.
Contradictory trends emerge for Kristersson. While DN/Ipsos shows he has declined in every measurement, Göteborgs-Posten reports he is gaining popularity within his own party. Nicklas Källebring, opinion analyst at Ipsos, stated that Kristersson has declined in every measurement they have done. This may reflect different metrics — overall trust versus within-party support.
Åkesson has said his party will support Kristersson as the right-wing's prime ministerial candidate. Källebring noted that voters have experience of both Andersson and Kristersson as prime minister, but no one knows how Åkesson would function in that post, so his numbers are based more on general approval and an idea of how he would function.
Ulf Kristersson has declined in every measurement we have done.
The Verian survey was conducted before the Liberal Party's shift on cooperating with the Sweden Democrats. The impact of that shift on voter trust in Simona Mohamsson remains to be seen.