The aviation industry is facing unprecedented disruption as a combination of jet fuel shortages, rising costs, and air traffic control (ATC) failures forces airlines to cancel thousands of flights. According to Lufthansa, the German carrier is canceling 20,000 short-haul flights through October to save approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel. Lufthansa said the first 120 daily cancellations took place earlier this week and will remain until the end of May. Lufthansa also confirmed it no longer offers flights to Bydgoszcz, Rzeszów, and Stavanger. Its CityLine subsidiary is being closed, contributing to the flight cuts. The Lufthansa Group's schedule adjustments aim to reduce unprofitable short-haul flights while maintaining long-haul connections, a spokesperson confirmed. The group's hubs include Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels, and Rome. According to a Lufthansa spokesperson, the airline has hedged approximately 80% of its kerosene requirements for 2026 and 40% for 2027 at pre-crisis price levels.
Ryanair has also canceled thousands of flights, with CEO Michael O'Leary stating that the airline may cancel 5% to 10% of flights through May, June, and July. O'Leary attributed the disruptions to staffing issues and French ATC strikes, but also blamed broader ATC failures across multiple countries. Ryanair called on EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and certain EU governments to explain why they allowed another summer of record ATC failures, according to Ryanair. According to Ryanair, over 21 million passengers have been delayed or had their travel plans canceled due to ATC failures so far this year. O'Leary stated that France, Spain, Germany, UK, and Greece continue to inflict avoidable delays and cancellations due to mismanagement and short staffing. In contrast, Bulgaria, Denmark, Slovakia, Netherlands, and Belgium deliver efficient ATC services without mismanagement or staff shortages, he said. O'Leary added that properly staffed ATC services would eliminate 90% of ATC delays, and that the worst-performing ATCs are complacent, protected state monopolies with no incentive to care about delays or passengers.
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said the airline may cancel 5% to 10% of flights through May, June, and July.
Other airlines are also making significant adjustments. Aer Lingus is canceling more than 500 flights due to mandatory maintenance on aircraft, a spokesperson confirmed. Beond Airlines has halted all services between the Maldives and Europe, and routes via Dubai, until at least October. Norse Atlantic canceled its London Gatwick to Los Angeles route due to fuel fears, according to a spokesperson. KLM is canceling 160 flights to and from Schiphol Airport in May due to rising kerosene costs. British Airways is reducing flights to the Middle East, permanently dropping Jeddah, and adding capacity to India and Africa, an IAG spokesperson said. Virgin Atlantic has added a £50 levy to economy fares, £180 on premium, and £360 on first class, according to multiple reports.
The European Union is working to clarify passengers' rights and airlines' public service obligations amid jet fuel shortages, according to a Reuters report. European Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism Apostolos Tzitzikostas said high fuel prices would not justify waiving passenger compensation for delays or cancellations. The EU's stance could lead to tensions with airlines seeking relief from compensation costs.
Michael O'Leary stated that France, Spain, Germany, UK, and Greece continue to inflict avoidable delays and cancellations due to mismanagement and short staffing.
The economic impact is already being felt. Tui has cut its full-year profit forecast due to uncertainty caused by the Iran conflict, according to multiple reports. The cancellations are affecting oil industry workers in Norway who rely on Frankfurt as a hub, according to interviews with workers and the NHO. A survey by NHO found that 90% of businesses in Rogaland, Norway believe the Iran conflict will affect them.
The geopolitical context is critical. The Iran conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil shipments, according to multiple reports. Jet fuel prices have doubled since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, according to major media. The weekly average price of jet fuel in Europe is $188 per barrel, up 106.5% from last year, according to IATA. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Europe has six weeks' supply of jet fuel left and flights could be canceled soon if oil supplies remain restricted, said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. However, there is some discrepancy in the severity of the warning: some sources report a specific six-week supply warning, while others mention only general warnings about shortages. US President Donald Trump said the US will extend the ceasefire with Iran but continue blocking Iranian ports. Beond Airlines removed a previous promise from its website guaranteeing business-class rebooking on other airlines, according to multiple sources.
Efficient ATCs in Bulgaria, Denmark, Slovakia, Netherlands, and Belgium prove that well-managed, properly staffed ATC is possible.
Unknowns remain about the exact current jet fuel supply level in Europe and how quickly shortages could materialize. It is also unclear how many of Lufthansa's 20,000 canceled flights are due to fuel costs versus the closure of CityLine. The evolution of the Iran conflict and its effect on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks remains uncertain, as does the specific actions the EU Commission will take in response to Ryanair's call for ATC reform.
The worst-performing ATCs are complacent, protected state monopolies with no incentive to care about delays or passengers.