Donald Trump has publicly stated he does not want Kurdish groups involved in the Iran war, yet he told Reuters he would be in favor of an offensive from Iranian Kurdish fighters in support of the U.S.-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic. He indicated that a deal on ending the war could be in sight, and said that Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others are leading the negotiations. Trump described the downing of American fighter jets as not negatively affecting any peace negotiations with Iran.
Trump's recent comments on Canada also reflect a shift from earlier threats. He has said he no longer wants to invade Canada, joking that Canada's history makes invasion unrealistic. He had previously threatened to turn Canada into America's '51st state'. Trump also posted an altered image on social media showing the U.S. flag covering Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela.
Just read what happened in Vietnam.
Canadian officials have reacted strongly to Trump's past threats. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would honor its NATO obligations to defend Greenland and Denmark if the U.S. tried to seize Greenland. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described Trump's threats to annex Canada as 'a real thing' and that Trump wanted access to Canada's critical minerals. Bob Rae described Trump's threats as 'existential' to Canada's future. Conflict researcher Thomas Homer-Dixon said Canada had been 'critically dependent on the friendship and benignness of the United States'.
Trump has reportedly engaged Canadian leadership on continental unity. He reportedly told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that the border between the U.S. and Canada was 'an artificially drawn line'. Trump reportedly told Mark Carney that a united continent was 'the way it was meant to be'. Trump also questioned whether Canadians still recognize the King as their head of state.
Tehran is willing to listen to 'sustainable' proposals.
On Iran, Trump's positions have been inconsistent. Trump described not being afraid of a potential conflict in Iran escalating into another Vietnam War. Iran's deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh cautioned that deploying U.S. troops to Tehran could risk another deadly war, advising the U.S. to 'Just read what happened in Vietnam.' Trump's views on a ground invasion of Tehran have varied, calling it a 'waste of time' on 6 March but a 'great thing' a day later.
U.S. military movements continue in the region. 1,000 U.S. soldiers with the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are expecting to deploy in coming days to the Middle East. Drones hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire at the site. Videos geolocated by CNN showed fire and smoke rising from a residential building in Erbil, Iraq, and local authorities said it was caused by a drone strike.
Trump's threats to annex Canada were 'a real thing' and that Trump wanted access to Canada's critical minerals.
Iran has signaled a willingness to negotiate under certain conditions. An Iranian source described Tehran as willing to listen to 'sustainable' proposals. Iranian representatives have let the Trump administration know it does not want to re-enter negotiations with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and would prefer to engage with Vice President JD Vance. Iran believes discussions involving Witkoff and Kushner wouldn’t be productive given the deficit of trust following the breakdown of negotiations prior to Israel and the U.S. launching military action.
Vance's role in negotiations is viewed with both hope and caution. Vance is viewed as more sympathetic to wanting to end the war compared to Witkoff, Kushner, and Rubio. Regional players recognize that it could be risky for Vance to enter into negotiations as it won’t be easy to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Trump's threats are 'existential' to Canada's future.
Meanwhile, the United States is in talks with opposition Kurdish forces in a bid to arm them and foment an uprising in Iran. President Donald Trump’s administration is actively discussing with opposition Kurdish groups the possibility of arming them. CNN reported that the CIA is negotiating with multiple Kurdish groups to aid them in an uprising.
Conflicting reports exist about Kurdish offensive preparations. In the coming days, Kurdish groups in Iran are set to participate in ground operations in western Iran, according to a Kurdish official. However, Kurdish groups have denied rumors of an Iranian Kurdish offensive underway, saying they were waiting. A false report was pushed by several major media outlets suggesting Kurdish groups had launched an offensive into Iran.
Canada had been 'critically dependent on the friendship and benignness of the United States'.
Historically, Kurdish rebels have for years opposed Tehran and carried out numerous attacks in Iran’s Kurdistan province and other western provinces. The U.S. spy agency CIA has a history of working with Kurdish groups in neighbouring Iraq, and Washington funded, armed and trained Kurdish fighters in Syria against Bashar al-Assad. There are seven Kurdish Iranian groups in Iran, with six forming a coalition against the Iranian regime and one rejecting it.
Trump has reportedly made direct contact with Kurdish leaders. Donald Trump spoke with Mustafa Hijri, head of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), on Tuesday, according to a Kurdish official. On Sunday, Trump spoke to the leaders of two Kurdish groups in Iraq: Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani, according to Axios sources. There had been reports of contact between the Trump administration and Kurdish groups.
Potential consequences of a Kurdish uprising are significant. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted Kurdish positions in the west amid the ongoing war. Iran has kept up drone strikes targeting Kurdish groups in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq. If Kurds were to start an uprising, it could trigger a domino effect across the rest of Iran.
Uncertainties and controversies surround Kurdish involvement. As of Wednesday, it was unclear whether any deals had been struck regarding arming Kurdish groups. Some Iranians call the Kurds 'separatists,' and others argue they could end up as cannon fodder or find it hard to control the Kurdish region in western Iran. Other groups in Iran don’t appear to be well-armed, and there is controversy between Kurdish groups and other Iranian opposition groups.
Broader regional impacts are unfolding. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency, warning of an 'imminent danger' to the availability and stability of the country’s energy supply. Some villages in southern Lebanon are being entirely emptied as civilians seek safety from Israel strikes aimed at Hezbollah targets.
In the U.S. political context, Republicans again rejected a resolution aimed at requiring Trump to seek congressional approval for future U.S. military action against Iran. Trump has downplayed military incidents, with his statement that the downing of American fighter jets will not negatively affect any peace negotiations with Iran.