The coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, triggered a chain reaction in the world's most critical maritime corridor. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned vessels that passage through the Strait of Hormuz was not allowed, and Iranian attacks on several vessels have dramatically reduced traffic in the narrow channel. Passage through the strait has not been a viable option for most vessels since the war broke out, with Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, CMA CGM and MSC, among others, issuing formal suspensions of their transits. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply and 22 percent of global liquefied natural gas exports, with about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products transiting the waterway each day. Data analyzed by BBC Verify shows just under 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz from the outbreak of the war to March 20, a 95% reduction in traffic from the 130-ship daily average prior to the crisis, though other reports indicated vessel traffic had fallen by approximately 70 percent by late Saturday evening on February 28, highlighting conflicting data on the severity and timeline of the disruption.
The disruption has caused extreme volatility in the price of oil and natural gas, as well as other resources crucial for the automotive supply chain such as coatings, plastics, battery materials, and semiconductors. Oil prices have soared, with Brent crude priced at $106 per barrel as of a Monday morning after the war, up more than 40 percent from $72.87 per barrel on February 27. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 4 March 2026, oil and LNG exports were stranded, causing Brent Crude to surge past $120 per barrel. Liquified natural gas prices have risen by almost 60 percent since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. QatarEnergy suspended its LNG production after an Iranian drone attack on March 2, straining the global LNG market, and later declared force majeure on all exports. Analysts project an immediate spike in oil prices, with several forecasting prices in the $80 range should hostilities persist, and in a worst-case scenario involving a protracted closure and Iranian strikes on Gulf Arab energy infrastructure, oil could reach $100 per barrel or beyond.
The United States-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region have upended global financial and energy markets, raising concerns of a global economic crisis or recession. The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to what the International Energy Agency characterized as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The impact of the conflict echoes the 1970s energy crisis through acute supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation and heightened risks of stagflation and recession, and markets have expressed concern that the war will have a negative impact on the economic recovery predicted for 2026.
Regional production and exports have been severely impacted, with the oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates collectively dropping by a reported 6.7 million barrels per day by 10 March, and by at least 10 million barrels per day as of 12 March. Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows about 84 percent of the crude oil and 83 percent of the LNG that passed through the strait in 2024 was bound for Asia, with China, India, Japan and South Korea accounting for nearly 70 percent of those oil shipments, according to the agency. Iran produces around 3 percent of global oil output after lifting output faster than any other OPEC member in recent years, adding another layer of disruption to global supplies.
For Scania, the war has meant trying to find solutions for employees on site, offering those who want to leave the opportunity to do so. The affected region accounts for two percent of Scania's total turnover, according to CEO Christian Levin. The delivery of around 600 trucks to the region has been stopped at ports such as Rotterdam and Shanghai, affecting Scania's cash flow.
There are different messages about whether Scania has paused a planned production increase due to the Iran war, according to an official source, leaving uncertainty about the specific impact on Scania's production and supply chain beyond the halted deliveries and employee solutions.
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Despite these widespread disruptions, no major OEMs have yet publicly reported production stoppages or operational impact as a result of the war, according to multiple reports. The conflict in the Middle East is affecting automotive supply chains both directly and indirectly, research indicates.
The Gulf region represents a significant market for the automotive industry, especially for premium autos.
Potential scenarios for oil prices depend heavily on the war's duration. A March 9 report by Neil Shearing and his team at Capital Economics suggests if the conflict is short-lived and Iranian attacks cease, oil and LNG prices would fall back sharply with Brent crude reaching $65 per barrel by the end of the year. In case of a longer war, the same report indicates oil prices would rise further during the conflict to around $130 per barrel in Q2.
Secondary impacts have rippled across the region, with by mid-March, 70% of the Gulf region's food imports disrupted, forcing retailers to airlift staples and resulting in a 40–120% spike in consumer prices. The regional aviation sector, including Emirates and Qatar Airways, faced a near-total cessation of operations due to multi-national airspace closures.
Geopolitically, US President Joe Biden discussed military strikes against Iran's oil export facilities with Israel, according to multiple reports. Crude oil prices surged 5 percent after Biden's comments and 8 percent by the end of the week, and should Israel attack Iranian oil export facilities, analysts believe oil could surge almost 40 percent, back towards $100 per barrel.
Amid the conflict, sanctions evasion routes for EU trucks to Syria have come into focus. The European Union and its member states have imposed heavy sanctions against Syria since the start of the conflict in 2011. Videos have shown the Syrian army using new-looking trucks with EU brands such as Mercedes, Scania, Volvo, and Iveco. An undercover reporter found that trucks could be shipped from the EU to Syria through countries like Jordan and Lebanon, sometimes by paying bribes and falsifying paperwork.