Russia is struggling to field enough soldiers to achieve its war aims in Ukraine, with its volunteer-based model at a standstill, according to Jussi Lassila, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Lassila said Russia may need to reassess its goals and seek to freeze the conflict due to a lack of breakthrough potential, noting that Ukraine has succeeded in counterattacks, nullifying Russia's spring offensive. President Alexander Stubb stated Russia has lost 500,000 soldiers while gaining only one percent of Ukrainian territory, and is approaching a moment where mobilization may need to be considered. The Kremlin is estimated to have sent 350,000 soldiers to their deaths over four years of fighting with minimal territorial gains, according to multiple reports.
A significant shift is underway in recruitment targeting, moving from middle-aged volunteers to students. For some time, the average Russian soldier has been a middle-aged man from a small town or village, lured by economic promises, according to official sources. Now the Russian Ministry of Defense wants to recruit young people and is targeting students, with many reports during the winter about military recruitment campaigns at universities and colleges. Students across Russia are being offered significant financial incentives to join drone units fighting in Ukraine, a need driven by the conflict's nature as a drone war requiring insatiable technical competence. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that students are being encouraged to join Russia's drone forces, saying the offer applies equally to workers, students, and the unemployed. The Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok promises students academic leave, fee exemptions, free accommodation, grants, and equipment costs for joining, with a financial package including a first-year salary from 5.5 million roubles and a one-off payment of 2.5 million roubles after training, according to multiple reports.
Official statements contradict external analyses of recruitment challenges. The Kremlin has stated that a general mobilisation is not on the agenda, and top officials deny any shortage of recruits, despite Ukrainian claims. Dmitry Medvedev claimed over 400,000 people signed up last year, with more than 80,000 joining so far this year. This stands in contrast to assessments from analysts like Lassila, who said Russia is unable to get the necessary number of soldiers to the front relative to its goals and that its current model has reached a standstill.
Broader recruitment pressures extend beyond campuses. Companies in Russia's central Ryazan region have been given quotas to enlist workers for the army, according to multiple reports. Russia is stepping up the hunt for new soldiers by hiring private recruitment companies, and is using social media and AI-generated propaganda to lure foreign mercenaries to the front. Conscripts are increasingly pressured to sign contracts for fighting, Lassila noted. Russia is not expected to conduct a large-scale mobilization but will intensify recruitment by other means before autumn parliamentary elections, Lassila added.
Russia's military service structure and financial incentives create stark disparities. The country maintains compulsory military service for all male citizens aged 18 to 30, following a 2024 reform that raised the maximum age limit from 27. Since 2026, enlistment occurs continuously throughout the year, replacing the previous system of two annual call-ups. Mandatory recruits receive about 2,750 rubles per month (around €30), with recent parliamentary consideration to raise it to 7,500 rubles (just over €80). In contrast, voluntary contract soldiers can earn around 200,000 rubles per month (more than €2,200), ranking among the highest salaries in the country. Officially, the Kremlin insists conscripts are not sent to the 'special military operation' in Ukraine, but human rights organizations and media have documented cases where recruits ended up deployed or pressured to sign contracts.
High casualty estimates underscore the manpower drain. British intelligence estimates Russian losses exceed 1.25 million soldiers killed or wounded since the beginning of the invasion in 2022. Previous estimates indicate Russia loses a thousand soldiers per day, including wounded and missing, according to multiple reports. President Stubb stated Ukraine can kill 30,000 Russian soldiers per month on the front, but Russia has not been able to recruit as many new soldiers.
Political warnings highlight the severity of the situation. President Alexander Stubb says Russia is approaching a moment where mobilization may need to be considered. Jussi Lassila, however, expects Russia to avoid large-scale mobilization and instead intensify recruitment by other means before autumn parliamentary elections.
The conflict has seen a rise in AI-generated disinformation campaigns. The use of AI-generated content to support disinformation claims was widespread, according to research from the ATAFIMI project, which monitored information manipulation between October and December 2025. AI-generated content showing emotionally broken Ukrainian soldiers in tears declaring their intention to desert is spreading on social networks, with some videos clocking millions of views. This content seems tailored to be part of a deliberate disinformation campaign, despite technical shortcomings like irregular body shapes or errors in image blending, the research found. The content spreads on platforms like TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Telegram, Facebook, and X in multiple languages, and was picked up in printed media in Russian and Serbian. AFP Fact Check analyzed over 70 accounts sharing such AI-generated videos and images in German, French, Polish, and Slovak.
Specific disinformation narratives heavily target Ukraine. The most prominent narrative backed by disinformation claims during the monitoring period targeted the Ukrainian Army and foreign soldiers fighting for Ukraine, with posts collecting over 2 million views. Unfunded claims targeting Volodymyr Zelensky and accusations of corruption regained traction and were detected in 9 out of 10 countries. Tweets accusing Zelensky of owning a Russian passport or buying Bill Cosby's house in New York were viewed over 3 and 1 million times, respectively. New narratives emerged focusing on Ukrainian army recruitment and the human cost of the war, including disinformation about drafting, troop mobilization, and massive losses. Disinformation claims alleging mistreatment of foreign volunteers circulated widely in Europe and Latin America to discourage enlistment.
Platform spread of this content shows limited moderation. Most viral posts were labeled with debunks by independent fact-checkers on Facebook and showed platform warnings on TikTok identifying content as AI-generated. Only one Community Note was shown on X, and no warnings appeared on Telegram channels regarding AI-generated content. Several users sharing disinformation claims on X had blue checks, which now indicates a paying subscription and normally gets more visibility.
A macabre parallel trend involves AI 'resurrection' videos for fallen soldiers. Russian troops killed in Ukraine are being 'brought back to life' in an AI resurrection trend, with grieving families paying for videos showing final hugs, kisses, and ascents to heaven. Dozens of communities on Russian 'Facebook' VK offer these 'farewell videos' to hundreds of thousands of users. Videos follow a script where a fallen soldier appears, embraces loved ones, and walks into the sky or is escorted by angels, with each clip paired with an obituary showing soldiers as if in real life without fatal wounds. Prices start at around 1,500 rubles for a simple animated hug, rising to 3,500–4,000 rubles for more elaborate scenes, and there are waiting lists or extra charges for rush orders.
Psychological and propaganda motives drive these resurrection videos. Psychologists say such videos can act as a coping mechanism for grief, while critics say it has become a profitable digital industry built around death. There is suspicion of a strong Russian propaganda motive behind the videos, portraying dead fighters as doing God's work, according to multiple reports.
Pro-war influencers, known as Z-Bloggers, are monetizing the conflict. Russia's pro-war influencers are generating big advertising revenues from their social media coverage, sharing ads for products like cryptocurrency and fashion alongside gruesome videos of drone strikes and false claims about Ukraine's President Zelensky. These influencers are often embedded with the Russian army and post footage from the front line, calling on young Russians to enlist. They have gained millions of followers on Telegram since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, leading to a surge in Telegram's advertising market. Alexander Kots charges 48,000-70,000 roubles (£440-£680) per post on his Telegram channel, and WarGonzo (Semyon Pegov) charges the equivalent of £1,550 per post.
Recruitment narratives diverge sharply between Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine have developed new communication strategies for recruitment campaigns to sustain the war effort. Russia combines economic incentives with identity-based and religious messaging in its recruitment, while Ukraine emphasizes defense of national territory, social mobilization, and international legitimacy.
Contradictions mark battlefield and recruitment claims. While Russian forces continue to make battlefield gains in Ukraine, now in the fifth year of the conflict, Jussi Lassila said Ukraine has succeeded in counterattacks, nullifying Russia's spring offensive, and that Russia has at times suffered significant losses when attempting breakthroughs. Similarly, while top officials deny any shortage of recruits, analysts say Russia is unable to get the necessary number of soldiers and its model has reached a standstill.
Broader societal impacts are emerging. Interest in leaving Russia has grown, with searches for 'how to leave Russia' doubling compared to last February, according to multiple reports. The war's toll is reflected in both the digital resurrection industry and the monetization by pro-war influencers, whose potential income dwarfs Russia's average monthly wage of 66,000 roubles (£550).