Russia cannot currently get the necessary number of soldiers to the front relative to its own goals, according to senior researcher Jussi Lassila of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Lassila added that Russia's current model based on a paid army and volunteerism has reached a certain dead end. Ukraine has succeeded in delaying Russia's advance, leading to the failure of Russia's spring offensive, he noted. However, Russia is generally able to keep troop numbers stable, but this is a big problem because it needs a clear advantage relative to its goals, Lassila explained.
High Russian casualties are straining military resources, with British intelligence estimating losses exceed 1.25 million soldiers killed or wounded since the beginning of the invasion in 2022. According to President Alexander Stubb, Ukraine can kill 30,000 Russian soldiers per month at the front, but Russia has not been able to recruit as many new soldiers. Stubb also stated that Russia has lost 500,000 soldiers but gained only one percent of Ukrainian territory. Previous estimates indicate Russia loses a thousand soldiers per day, including wounded and missing, multiple reports show.
To address recruitment gaps, the Russian Defense Ministry wants to recruit young people for the war and is targeting students, the ministry said. In Russia, there have been many reports during the winter about military recruitment campaigns at universities and colleges, according to multiple sources. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that students are indeed being encouraged to join Russia's drone forces, a new division established late last year at President Vladimir Putin's behest. Peskov added that the recruitment offer applies equally to everyone - workers, students and the unemployed, describing it as a completely open offer to join a new type of unit. Russia's move to target students suggests that Moscow is keen to pour more skilled human resources into its drone forces, multiple reports indicate.
Students across Russia are being offered significant financial incentives to join drone units fighting in Ukraine, serving as both operators and engineers, multiple reports show. The Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok is promising students who sign up for a minimum of one year extendable academic leave, guaranteed exemption from education fees, free accommodation, grants, and coverage of military equipment costs, according to multiple reports. The financial package includes a first-year salary from 5.5 million roubles, a one-off payment of 2.5 million roubles after free training, a monthly allowance of 240,000 roubles, and a one-off payment of 200,000 roubles from the university, multiple reports indicate.
Beyond student recruitment, conscripts are increasingly pressured to sign contracts for warfare, multiple reports show. Documents indicate that companies in Russia's central Ryazan region have been given quotas to enlist workers for the army, according to multiple reports. Russia is stepping up the hunt for new soldiers for the war by hiring private recruitment companies, multiple reports indicate. The move suggests Moscow is diversifying its recruitment strategies, multiple reports show.
Official denials contradict these recruitment challenges, as the Kremlin has stated that a general mobilisation is not on the agenda. Top officials deny any shortage of recruits, despite Ukrainian claims dismissed by Moscow. Dmitry Medvedev claimed over 400,000 people signed up last year, with more than 80,000 joining so far this year, according to the deputy chairman of the Security Council.
Russia is also employing disinformation campaigns using AI-generated content, with monitoring between October 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, as part of the ATAFIMI project identifying incidents of information manipulation and interference originating from Russia in Spain, Ukraine, Lithuania, Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela, research from five sources shows. The use of AI-generated content to support disinformation claims was widespread, with most viral posts labeled with debunks by independent fact-checkers on Facebook and sometimes showing platform warnings on TikTok identifying content as AI-generated, research from five sources indicates. The AI-generated footage displays technical flaws typical of generative AI, such as irregular body shapes or errors in image blending, with one section showing a seemingly headless soldier jumping into the air in the background, research from five sources notes.
Specific disinformation narratives target Ukraine, with unfounded claims targeting Volodymyr Zelensky and accusations of corruption regaining traction and detected in 9 out of 10 countries, with examples including tweets accusing him of owning a Russian passport or buying Bill Cosby's house in New York viewed over 3 million and 1 million times respectively, research from five sources shows. New narratives emerged during this monitoring period focusing on Ukrainian army recruitment and the human cost of the war, including disinformation about drafting, troop mobilization, and Ukraine suffering massive losses within its armed forces, research from five sources indicates. Disinformation claims alleging the mistreatment of foreign volunteers have circulated widely in both Europe and Latin America with the apparent aim of discouraging enlistment, research from five sources notes. AI-generated content showing emotionally broken Ukrainian soldiers in tears declaring their intention to desert is spreading on social networks, with some videos clocking up millions of views, research from five sources shows.
The spread of this disinformation faces verification issues, as only one Community Note was shown on X, and no warnings appeared on Telegram channels regarding AI-generated disinformation content, research from five sources indicates. Several users sharing disinformation claims on X had blue checks, which formerly indicated verification but now means the user is paying a subscription and normally gets more visibility, research from five sources notes. AFP Fact Check looked at more than 70 accounts sharing such AI-generated videos and images in German, French, Polish and Slovak, research from five sources shows.
Recruitment efforts extend to foreign mercenaries, as with the help of social media and AI-generated propaganda, foreign mercenaries are lured to the front, multiple reports indicate. Russia and Ukraine have developed new communication strategies aimed at attracting new fighters to sustain the war effort, with Moscow combining economic incentives with identity-based and religious messaging, while Kyiv emphasizes defense of national territory, social mobilization, and international legitimacy, research from five sources notes.
Russia's conscription system highlights financial disparities, as the country maintains compulsory military service for all male citizens aged 18 to 30, following a reform approved in 2024 that raised the maximum age limit from 27, and since 2026 enlistment has also taken place continuously throughout the year, research from five sources shows. Officially, the Kremlin insists that conscripts are not sent to the 'special military operation' in Ukraine, but human rights organizations and various media outlets have documented cases where recruits ended up deployed in the conflict or were pressured to sign professional contracts, research from five sources indicates. Mandatory recruits in Russia receive only about 2,750 rubles per month (around €30), although the Russian parliament has recently considered raising that to 7,500 rubles (just over €80), research from five sources notes. Those who sign a voluntary contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense can earn around 200,000 rubles per month (more than €2,200), which ranks among the highest salaries in the country and is well above the national average of 50,000-75,000 rubles per month (€550-€825), research from five sources shows.
Pro-war influencers in Russia are monetizing the conflict, as Russia's pro-war influencers, known as 'Z-Bloggers', are generating big advertising revenues from their social media coverage of the conflict, sharing ads for anything from cryptocurrency to fashion, research from five sources indicates. Pro-war influencers have gained millions of followers on Telegram since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, leading to a surge in Telegram's advertising market, research from five sources notes. Alexander Kots, a war influencer with over 600,000 followers on Telegram, charges 48,000-70,000 roubles (£440-£680) per post depending on how long the ad is kept at the top of his feed, research from five sources shows. Semyon Pegov (WarGonzo), with over 1.3 million followers, quoted £1,550 per post for advertising, research from five sources indicates. Top war influencers post at least one ad per day, so their potential income dwarfs Russia's average monthly wage of 66,000 roubles (£550), research from five sources notes. An advertising agent quoted £260 per ad for the Grey Zone Telegram channel (with over 600,000 followers and exclusive access to Wagner), £180 per post for Alexander Simonov's channel, and £86 per post for Alexander Yaremchuk's channel, research from five sources shows.
Contextually, Russia's war in Ukraine is a drone war and the need for technical skills is insatiable, according to two official sources. The average Russian soldier is a middle-aged man from a small town or village, two official sources note.
International assessments and public sentiment reflect growing concerns, as according to President Alexander Stubb, Russia is approaching a moment when mobilization must be considered. Interest in leaving Russia has grown, with searches for 'how to leave Russia' or 'leave Russia' twice as high in early this year compared to last February, multiple reports show. Russia may have to reassess war goals and seek to freeze the situation because there are no preconditions for breakthroughs, Lassila stated.
Potential policy shifts and unknowns loom, as Russia aims to intensify recruitment by other means before autumn parliamentary elections, according to Lassila. Russian forces continue to make battlefield gains in Ukraine, now in the fifth year of the conflict, multiple reports indicate, though this contrasts with assessments of Ukrainian success in halting advances. US-brokered peace talks remain on hold due to the Iran war, multiple reports show. The exact current number of Russian soldiers recruited through new strategies like student incentives and private recruitment companies has not been confirmed, and how effective the AI-generated disinformation campaigns are in actually discouraging foreign volunteers from joining the Ukrainian forces remains unclear. Whether the Kremlin will reconsider its stance on general mobilization given the reported recruitment challenges and battlefield assessments is also unknown.