Russia remains a formidable, capable, and determined adversary with the world's largest and strongest nuclear arsenal, according to research from ten sources. Kremlin military files have revealed 32 locations across NATO countries that Russia could strike with nuclear and conventional missiles, including three in the UK. Senior NATO military and intelligence leaders regularly warn that Russian aggression on NATO territory in the near term is a serious threat, though the specific locations beyond the UK remain unknown.
At the NATO Summit in The Hague, Allies took a historic decision to raise defence investment to 5% of GDP. In 2025, for the first time, all NATO Allies met the goal to invest at least 2% of GDP on defence, with Europe and Canada increasing defence spending by 20% compared to 2024. How this increased spending will be implemented and its effectiveness in deterring Russian aggression remains uncertain.
Europe is a principal target of Russian aggression, with acts like sabotage, cyberattacks, and surveillance across the continent, according to research from ten sources. Russia's shadow warfare is a sustained campaign designed to degrade European security below the threshold of military response, involving actions like undermining oil and gas supplies, money laundering, espionage, and sabotage. The full extent and impact of these hybrid warfare activities across Europe has not been fully documented.
Russian hostile acts on UK soil have included the use of a nerve agent in Salisbury, cyber incidents, espionage, and arson, according to research from ten sources. In January 2025, the Russian ship Yantar was spotted in UK territorial waters near the English Channel. Russian spy sensors were discovered in UK waters, likely targeting Vanguard-class submarines and mapping critical underwater infrastructure.
The US' role in NATO is 'beyond reconsideration'.
The accession of Sweden and Finland as NATO members has fundamentally altered Russia's security calculations in the Baltic and Nordic region, according to research from ten sources. In Kirkenes, Norway, Russian fishing trawlers, including the Arka-33, have docked, with some showing unusual behavior like extended stays and younger crew doing physical training. The Russian government declared that commercial vessels could be co-opted by the military for any purpose.
The drumbeat of withdrawal from NATO has been growing since before Donald Trump's first term in office, according to major media reports. Most MAGA conservatives see withdrawal from NATO as a central tenet of Donald Trump's 'America First' agenda. Donald Trump's stance fails to fully acknowledge the 'enduring and most potent' danger living right under its nose, according to a top analyst.
Russia has remained sceptical the US would leave NATO at all, according to major media reports. Putin himself has been buoyed by the mere proposal of U.S. withdrawal from NATO. Russian state television presenter Olga Skabeyeva claimed that no one believes the United States will come to the assistance of NATO countries.
Putin's war of aggression continued in 2025, with support from China, Iran, North Korea, and Belarus, according to research from ten sources. A US intelligence assessment concluded that Russian President Putin is 'more determined than ever to carry on the war' in Ukraine. Russia will rearm its military in pursuit of Vladimir Putin's imperial ambitions if the war in Ukraine becomes a prolonged frozen conflict.
The 'paper tiger' organisation had not followed his and Israel's unpopular Iran whims.
The Russian state-sponsored group 'Sandworm' targeted key sectors in Ukraine with destructive cyber attacks between April and September 2025, according to research from ten sources. Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Russia, with 389 drones downed over 13 Russian regions and Crimea. Two stray Ukrainian drones landed in Latvia and Estonia, NATO members, with one hitting an Estonian power station.
NATO saw increasingly reckless Russian behaviour on NATO territory, including airspace violations and hybrid threats, according to research from ten sources. If Vladimir Putin can't win a clear victory in Ukraine, he will seek one elsewhere; a clear victory in Ukraine would embolden Moscow to further aggression. European diplomats believe Putin might try to escalate hybrid warfare tactics to gain leverage over the outcome in Ukraine.
Russia's Northern Fleet poses the most stark missile threat to the UK since the Cold War, according to William Freer. The lowest risk and most likely option for Moscow is Russian forces occupying Norway's Svalbard archipelago, according to research from ten sources. Europe fears Russia could launch another attack within five years, though the timeline remains contested.
Conflicting assessments exist about the likelihood and timeline of a direct Russian attack on NATO territory. Senior NATO military and intelligence leaders regularly warn that Russian aggression on NATO territory in the near term is a serious threat. However, UK military leader Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said there is only a remote chance of a significant direct attack or invasion by Russia on the United Kingdom, while research indicates Putin probably does not have sufficient forces to launch a direct military assault on a NATO country due to troops bogged down in Ukraine.
Europe must prepare to meet threats with less American support, according to research from ten sources. Ukraine is preparing key changes to its mobilisation process and policy on deserters to address manpower shortages, while Russia faces domestic and foreign challenges that make a deliberate attack less likely, such as economic revitalization and veteran reintegration.
The implications of these developments remain uncertain, particularly whether the US will actually withdraw from NATO under Donald Trump's potential presidency. The outcome of the war in Ukraine and how it will influence Russia's future actions toward NATO remains unknown, with Vladimir Putin potentially exploiting Donald Trump's threat to quit NATO by provoking a crisis or conflict elsewhere in Europe.