Mulberry's board rebuffed a takeover offer from Frasers Group, which holds a 37% stake in the brand. The company's revenue fell 19% year-on-year to £56.1 million in the 26 weeks ended 28 September, according to research from seven sources. Its underlying loss before tax widened to £15.3 million from £12.3 million in the same period in 2023. Frasers Group decided not to make a formal offer but believes market headwinds and lack of a commercial plan place Mulberry in a very difficult financial position, the research indicates.
Mulberry's sales have bounced back due to a turnaround strategy refocusing on the UK market, the company said. According to Mulberry, group sales rose 13.6% in the six months to 28 March, after falling 3.2% in the first half. UK sales rose 13.7% in the second half, thanks to new bags and concessions in John Lewis and Selfridges. The company reported that its new Boston bag, priced at £1,395, has performed strongly, and a limited edition version of its Bayswater bag, priced at £1,855, sold out within minutes when launched in February. CEO Andrea Baldo has rejigged prices so that 60% of Mulberry's wares are sold below £1,000, and a product refresh has helped boost sales of pricier bags, according to major media reports.
There are a lot of residents going back to London at least temporarily.
Internationally, Mulberry faces significant challenges. Total international retail sales were down 17% to £19.5 million, driven by a 31% slump in Asia-Pacific to £9.3 million, research from seven sources shows. Baldo has been vocal about the impact of the UK's tourist tax, stating that Mulberry lost nearly £10 million of UK sales between the pandemic and today due to its loss. According to Baldo, London has probably lost around a fifth of the traffic from international visitors compared to before the pandemic. He noted that stores in Dublin and Amsterdam have almost doubled their business from international travellers. Baldo argued that reintroducing tax-free shopping for tourists would benefit the economy and boost luxury manufacturers, high street stores, restaurants, and hotels.
Financially, Mulberry raised £10.4 million by selling shares and increased its debt facilities to support its turnaround plan, research from seven sources indicates. The company did not provide profit guidance, having made a loss of £23.7 million for the year to 28 March 2025, according to Mulberry. However, full-year sales rose 5.7%, Andrea Baldo told major media. Market response has been positive recently, with Mulberry shares soaring 7% on Monday afternoon, contributing to gains of 27% over the past year, major media reports show.
The link between Dubai and London is so strong we might hopefully see some families come back. Probably what we will see is that it is all based on school, so with term-times in September, families could start moving around.
The war in the Middle East is upending lives and livelihoods in the region and beyond, dimming the outlook for many economies, according to research from seven sources. The shock from the war is global yet asymmetric, with energy importers more exposed than exporters, poorer countries more than richer ones, and those with meager buffers more than those with ample reserves. The conflict has caused serious disruption to the economies of the most directly affected countries, damaging infrastructure and industries and negatively affecting short-term growth prospects. All roads from the war lead to higher prices and slower growth globally, the research concludes.
Energy is the main transmission channel for the war's economic impact, with the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure producing the largest disruption to the global oil market in its history, according to the International Energy Agency. The US and Israeli military strikes on Iran have sent global oil and gas markets spiraling, with oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel, research from seven sources indicates. Shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz are at a standstill due to Iranian threats to tankers. Benchmark US crude prices hover near $95 per barrel, a significant rise from prewar levels in the low- to mid-$60/bbl range. Oil prices have at points soared to close to $120 a barrel, pushed up by strikes on shipping and energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil shipping channel. About a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, around 20 million barrels each day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), though other estimates suggest a higher percentage.
A year of decisive progress.
Large energy importers in Asia and Europe are bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input costs, research from seven sources shows. Economies heavily dependent on oil imports in Africa and Asia are finding it increasingly hard to access supplies, even at inflated prices. Parts of the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America face higher food and fertilizer prices and tighter financial conditions, with low-income countries especially at risk of food insecurity. Energy-importing economies in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are feeling strain from higher import bills on top of limited fiscal space and external buffers. In Asia’s large manufacturing economies, higher fuel and power bills are raising production costs and squeezing people's incomes.
In the United States, international prices for LNG have jumped more than 50%, although this spike has little direct effect on US consumers, according to research from seven sources. Because the cost of crude oil is the most important determinant of gasoline and diesel prices, and crude oil costs have soared, US drivers are facing higher prices at the pump. LNG trade has also been affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, but natural gas markets are more fragmented, moderating effects on prices for US consumers.
Value for money.
Clean energy technologies face their own vulnerabilities. Wind and solar energy are not vulnerable to the same price volatility as fossil fuels, but clean energy technologies are not immune from supply chain disruptions stemming from geopolitical disputes. China’s restrictions on the export of critical minerals are a prime example of how energy independence is not an inevitable consequence of a transition to a low-emissions future. The United States, as the world’s largest LNG exporter and major EU supplier, could step up shipments to mitigate the price shock, but most expansion facilities will come online in the coming years, not weeks or months.
Potential escalation scenarios carry significant risks. Multiple US–Iran conflict scenarios carry materially different risks for global oil infrastructure, transit routes, and prices. Across all scenarios, the Gulf Arab states would be exposed as targets of Iranian retaliation following any US and Israeli action against Iran. In the event of an attack, Iranian retaliation against US allies and partners in the Arabian Peninsula would put global oil infrastructure and associated transit ways at risk. In a scenario involving direct kinetic attacks between the United States (possibly with Israel) and Iran, including strikes on oil infrastructure, prices would likely experience a significant shock, but that impact would be buffered by a well-supplied market and currently low prices.
The UK is the most important market for us, not just in London where our performance is really strong but also in the regions.
Analysts have offered predictions for oil price impacts under different conflict scenarios. Some bank analysts, including Barclays, see oil prices jumping from the mid-$60s per barrel to the $80 per barrel range in the short term in the event of an attack by the United States and/or Israel on Iranian military and government leadership. A more symbolic Iranian retaliation targeting US bases but not disrupting critical oil or gas production or blocking transit routes would likely result in a more modest and less sustained price impact of $3–4 per barrel, according to research from seven sources.
China's energy resilience is being tested by the crisis. China has long braced for a Gulf oil supply shock, but the Iran war's disruption of a key global shipping route is now putting its resilience to the test. China, the world's largest buyer of oil, is also feeling the strain, but sits in a better position than its neighbours after years of statecraft that have prepared it for a global energy crisis. China uses an estimated 15 to 16 million barrels of oil daily, according to various market analysts. Gulf countries are a major source of the oil China ships in, with barrels from Saudi Arabia and Iran accounting for more than 10% of its imports each, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Most of China's imported crude oil, which comes from Iran and the Middle East through the South China Sea, is used as fuel to support factories and transportation, mainly in the southern half of China. China's north is mainly powered by oil produced domestically in major oilfields, along with pipeline imports from Russia, which are not disrupted by the war in the Middle East. Russian oil accounts for nearly a fifth of China's energy imports, making Moscow by far Beijing's biggest oil supplier, despite sanctions from the US and Europe. Coal is the dominant source of power for most of China's electricity, and is available in abundance locally, with China being the world's largest coal producer, accounting for more than half of global production. Oil and gas account for just over a quarter of China's total energy consumption.
Despite a challenging economic and geopolitical environment, we have delivered growth across all channels and geographies, with clear momentum right across the business.
The blockade has led to a global oil shortage which has rocked Gulf-reliant Asian countries hard, with the Philippines mandating four-day work weeks to save fuel, and Indonesia seeking ways to avoid burning through reserves that will last just weeks, research from seven sources indicates.
The financial outlook of Gulf Arab states depends on regional stability, which could be tested by an Iranian leadership transition, according to research from seven sources.
We are simplifying the business, restoring full price discipline, strengthening our connection with customers, and reasserting Mulberry's position as a distinctive British lifestyle brand.
Key unknowns persist for Mulberry and the global energy landscape. Mulberry did not provide profit guidance after reporting a loss, leaving its specific profit outlook unclear. CEO Andrea Baldo suggested it is 'too early' to see signs of expats returning from Dubai to the UK due to the Iran war, stating that many residents are going back to London at least temporarily and that families might return based on school terms. Whether this translates to an actual increase remains uncertain. For the energy markets, how long the blockade and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will last and their long-term effects are still unknown.
The government should consider axing the UK’s tourist tax as the Treasury seeks to boost growth.
Reintroducing tax-free shopping for tourists would be beneficial for the economy, help luxury manufacturers invest further in UK production, and boost the country’s high street stores, restaurants, and hotels through a resurgence of tourism.