Israeli airstrikes used over 80 warplanes to drop around 230 bombs in and around Tehran, primarily targeting fuel depots, according to multiple reports. The attacks caused apocalyptic scenes, with residents reporting oil rain and fears of suffocation. Iran's health ministry reports over 1,200 killed and 10,000 civilians injured, though these figures are unverified by independent sources. Toxic smoke from oil depot fires is causing a health crisis, with residents describing black rain and breathing difficulties.
This escalation follows a major Israeli operation in late October 2024. On 26 October, Israel launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran, Iraq, and Syria, codenamed Operation Days of Repentance. These strikes were the largest attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War, in response to Iranian strikes against Israel earlier that month. The attack involved over 100 aircraft, including F-35 stealth fighters, traveling 2,000 kilometres, with some breaching Iranian airspace. Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military sites, including air-defense batteries, a UAV factory, and missile production facilities, with all Israeli aircraft returning safely.
Military targets and casualties from the recent strikes remain contested. An Iranian news agency reported military installations in Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan provinces were attacked, with four Iranian Army soldiers killed. The Israeli army stated it struck fuel tanks used for military infrastructure and the headquarters of Iran's Revolutionary Guards aerospace force. Four oil depots and one logistics site near Tehran were struck by the US and Israel overnight, killing four employees, according to an Iranian official. US-Israeli attacks have killed at least 1,332 Iranian civilians and wounded thousands, Iran's UN ambassador asserted, highlighting a stark discrepancy in casualty reports.
The environmental and health impacts in Tehran are severe. The bombings released toxic chemicals that could lead to acid rain and damage skin and lungs, according to Iran's environmental agency and the Iranian Red Crescent Society. Soil and water supplies around Tehran were already beginning to be contaminated by fallout from the explosions, Iran's deputy health minister stated. Tehranis reported difficulty breathing, headaches, and burning sensations in eyes and throats after the bombings. Residents described explosions, red lights, and huge red clouds from the strikes on oil depots, according to BBC reports.
Health experts warn of long-term consequences. Pollutants from oil depot strikes include hydrocarbons, PM2.5, carcinogens, and acid rain precursors, posing long-term health risks, said a University of Melbourne expert. Health experts warn of long-term health effects from the pollution, including respiratory issues and increased cancer risk. The explosions exposed the local population to toxic chemical species, including metals from crude oil, a professor described. Oil fires produce sulphur and nitrogen compounds that could form acids if dissolved in rainwater, posing health risks from inhalation or contact, multiple reports indicate.
Iran faces a domestic crisis exacerbated by the attacks. Fuel distribution in Tehran has been temporarily suspended due to damage to the supply network from US-Israeli strikes, Tehran governor stated. Fuel distribution in Tehran is limited to 20 liters per vehicle, with long queues at stations, according to AFP journalists. However, Iran claims it has sufficient fuel reserves in depots across the country, according to an Iranian official. Iranian authorities are monitoring air quality in the capital and have asked residents to stay at home.
In retaliation, Iran has attacked energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran attacked Qatar's gas installations again, Iranian state TV reported. A fire broke out at a gas facility in Qatar after an Iranian attack on Wednesday, later brought under control, QatarEnergy stated. Qatar revealed that almost one-fifth of its LNG export capacity was knocked out by an Iranian strike on Ras Laffan. Iran also retaliated with missile attacks on Haifa refinery and Kuwait fuel depots, killing two Kuwaiti officers, the Kuwait Interior Ministry confirmed.
Regional impacts include casualties in Israel, the West Bank, and Bahrain. A foreign guest worker was killed in an Iranian missile attack in central Israel last night, according to medical personnel on site. Three Palestinians were killed in an Iranian attack on the West Bank, the Palestinian Red Crescent reported, adding that at least two of those killed were women. Three people were injured by missile debris in Bahrain on Sunday, the Bahrain Interior Ministry said. Bahrain's defense force says it shot down five missiles on Thursday evening, according to Al Jazeera.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint. Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, attacking at least three supertankers, according to multiple reports. Gulf countries have cut oil production due to blocked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices could rise to $180 per barrel if the conflict with Iran continues until the end of April, the Wall Street Journal cited Saudi oil experts as saying. Iran threatened to target regional oil sites and push oil prices above $200 per barrel, the Iranian army stated.
Diplomatic reactions reflect international concern. Six countries issued a joint statement expressing deep concern about the escalating conflict and calling on Iran to cease threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's President apologized to Arab states for Iranian military attacks, but was corrected by hardliners, according to multiple reports. Talks about opening the Strait of Hormuz may start in the coming week, a source told the BBC.
US and Israeli military actions continue. The US is accelerating deployment of a Marine unit to the region, NBC News sources reported. U.S. officials confirmed the U.S. was briefed in advance but did not participate in the operation. A U.S. assessment estimated the strikes crippled Iran's missile production capability, taking at least a year to rebuild. Israeli officials told Reuters the South Pars attack was coordinated with the US in advance, though unlikely to be repeated.
Iran has signaled readiness for a prolonged conflict. Iran says it is ready for at least six months of war, ignoring Trump's calls for unconditional surrender. Iranian officials claim the true war goal of Israel and the US is the dissolution of Iran as a nation, according to a source. Israel announced that Iran's new leader will be a target. State television has warned that anyone who speaks or acts in favour of the US, Israel, or Reza Pahlavi will be killed, according to BBC reports.
Water infrastructure damage adds to regional strain. Strikes have hit desalination plants in the Middle East, threatening water supplies, multiple reports indicate. Iran accuses the US of damaging a desalination plant, affecting water for 30 villages. Iran is facing a serious water crisis due to drought and infrastructure constraints, according to an expert. Asia is heavily affected by the disruptions, with measures like reduced workweeks in the Philippines and work-from-home in Vietnam, multiple reports show.
The exact number of casualties from the strikes in Iran, including both military and civilian deaths, remains unclear due to conflicting reports. Similarly, the specific environmental and health impacts from the attacks on oil infrastructure, and how they are being addressed, are still being assessed. The current status of the Strait of Hormuz, including whether it remains fully blocked and the extent of shipping disruptions, is a key uncertainty affecting global markets.
Diplomatic efforts or negotiations currently underway to de-escalate the conflict have not been detailed publicly, beyond the mention of potential talks on the Strait of Hormuz. The current state of Iran's energy infrastructure and fuel reserves after the attacks is also unknown, despite Iranian claims of sufficient reserves.