The International Energy Agency’s executive director Fatih Birol stated that Europe has six weeks of jet fuel remaining before shortages force flight cancellations. Disruptions will begin 'soon' if Middle East oil supplies blocked by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz are not restored, according to Birol, who added that Europe will be 'at the forefront' of impacts from blocked Middle East oil supplies, with flight cancellations beginning within weeks if tanker passage does not resume. The timeline puts travelers with bookings after May 15 at risk, with airlines prioritizing long-haul routes over intra-Europe flights.
Research from multiple sources indicates the war in the Middle East is upending lives and livelihoods in the region and beyond, dimming the outlook for many economies that had just shown signs of recovery. The shock is global but asymmetric, with energy importers, poorer countries, and those with meager buffers more exposed than others. The war has caused serious disruption to the economies of the most directly affected countries, including damage to infrastructure and industries that could become long-lasting. Large energy importers in Asia and Europe are bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input costs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while parts of the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America face higher food and fertilizer prices and tighter financial conditions. Low-income countries are especially at risk of food insecurity and may need more external support, which has been declining, and the war could lead to higher prices and slower growth globally, with outcomes depending on conflict duration, spread, and damage to infrastructure.
The International Energy Agency reported that the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure have produced the largest disruption to the global oil market in its history. According to multiple sources, about 25 to 30 percent of global oil and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US Energy Information Administration estimates about a fifth of the world's oil passes through the waterway—around 20 million barrels each day. Energy shipments from the Middle East have been at a standstill following Iran's threats to attack vessels in a critical trade waterway as retaliation against US-Israeli strikes, and the blockade has led to a global oil shortage, rocking Gulf-reliant Asian countries hard.
Oil prices have at points soared to close to $120 (£90) a barrel due to strikes on shipping and energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple reports. Brent crude futures rose on Tuesday, recovering some losses as escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled concerns over potential supply disruptions, with the international benchmark trading at $98.74 per barrel, up around 3% from the previous close of $95.92. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate increased 3.6% to $91.30 per barrel, compared with $88.13 in the previous session. The rebound followed a drop in prices after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause in planned strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, but gains proved short-lived as markets refocused on the risk of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say the back-and-forth between military escalation and diplomatic signals is driving volatility in oil markets.
Airlines are responding to the crisis with specific measures, as KLM has cut 160 flights through May citing high kerosene costs, while Ryanair and Virgin Atlantic confirmed suppliers have guaranteed fuel only until mid-May, according to regulatory filings. KLM faces no kerosene shortage but cannot operate some legs profitably at current fuel prices, which have climbed more than 30% since the US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February. According to research, airlines typically maintain six weeks of fuel reserves under normal conditions, but those buffers are now depleted. Ryanair's CEO Michael O'Leary has said disruption could begin in May, according to major media reports.
We don't expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and we hope the war will finish sooner than that and the risk to supply will be eliminated.
Passenger concerns are mounting, with TUI sharing a message to passengers worried about possible fuel shortages, according to major media reports. The travel company issued advice on social media, responding to a customer with concerns, after a TUI passenger contacted the airline on X to ask if it could share an update for any flights booked after May 1. Other airlines have faced similar questions from passengers. According to major media reports, TUI states it does not anticipate immediate disruption to its flight schedules or holiday programmes from fuel shortages.
Asian impacts are widespread, as the Philippines has mandated four-day work weeks to save fuel, and Indonesia is seeking ways to avoid burning through reserves that will last just weeks, according to multiple sources. China, the world's largest buyer of oil, is feeling strain but sits in a better position than its neighbours due to years of statecraft preparing for a global energy crisis. China uses an estimated 15 to 16 million barrels of oil daily, according to various market analysts, with Gulf countries being a major source, as Saudi Arabia and Iran account for more than 10% of its imports each, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Most of China's imported crude oil comes from Iran and the Middle East through the South China Sea and is used for factories and transportation in the southern half of China, while the north is mainly powered by domestically produced oil and pipeline imports from Russia, which are not disrupted by the war in the Middle East. Russian oil accounts for nearly a fifth of China's energy imports, making Moscow Beijing's biggest oil supplier despite sanctions, and coal is the dominant source of power for most of China's electricity and is available in abundance locally, with China being the world's largest coal producer. Oil and gas account for just over a quarter of China's total energy consumption.
Energy-importing economies in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are feeling strain from higher import bills on top of limited fiscal space and external buffers, according to research. In Asia’s large manufacturing economies, higher fuel and power bills are raising production costs and squeezing people’s incomes. For the second time in four years, global energy markets dependent on imported fossil fuels find themselves at the mercy of global commodity markets due to the Middle East crisis. According to research, all countries face the indirect threat of higher costs driven by tighter fossil fuel markets and elevated geopolitical risk premiums, though exposure varies.
According to multiple sources, the world economy has been thrown into turbulence since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February. Iran’s retaliation for US-Israel strikes effectively closed the waterway in late February. Reports indicate Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may move closer to aligning with US and Israeli forces, adding to uncertainty, with Saudi Arabia reportedly allowing US forces access to a major air base, while the UAE is weighing measures such as freezing Iranian assets. Strikes on Iran's own energy infrastructure have intensified, with Iranian media reporting damage to gas facilities in Isfahan and Khorramshahr, though no casualties were reported. The conflict escalated following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, with Tehran responding with drone and missile attacks targeting Israel and Gulf countries hosting US military assets. Trump has warned that Washington could still target Iran's energy sector if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while pointing to 'very good' discussions and leaving the door open for a deal.
According to research, the shortage has left countries scrambling for alternative crude suppliers outside of the Gulf, while others are tapping into their own oil reserves.
Experts have warned Europe could face jet fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened in the coming weeks, according to major media reports. According to research, prolonged escalation could cause energy price spikes to spill over into core economic indicators like inflation, interest rates, trade balances, and GDP growth, derailing fiscal and monetary goals. According to research, the duration of the conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and outages at key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf remain key unknowns.