The proposed operation would target nuclear sites, including at Natanz and Isfahan, as part of an effort to physically remove Iran's uranium stockpile. The uranium stockpile is estimated at around 1,000 pounds (approximately 450 kg). The uranium is enriched to near weapons-grade levels of 60%. The objective is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. According to U.S. officials, the operation is described as complex, risky, and could take several days to a week. U.S. forces would face Iranian air defenses and drones during the operation, according to multiple reports.
Military experts and former officers describe the operation as complex and risky, with an estimated duration of several days to a week. The operation's complexity stems from the need to infiltrate heavily guarded facilities and secure the uranium without triggering a broader conflict. The risks are compounded by Iran's military capabilities and the potential for escalation. The operation could also provoke retaliatory strikes from Iran, destabilizing the region further.
Amid these considerations, there is a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, with about 50,000 troops deployed, according to multiple reports. Several hundred U.S. special operations troops have arrived in the region, according to The New York Times and officials. The Pentagon has imminent plans to deploy 3,000 brigade combat troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, but the order has not been made, according to The Wall Street Journal.
President Trump has not made a final decision on the operation and is weighing the risks, according to U.S. officials and sources. This indicates a cautious approach, with timing uncertain.
Contextually, Iran's nuclear program has been a longstanding concern. Iran has not allowed UN inspections of damaged nuclear facilities since last summer, according to multiple reports. U.S. intelligence and the IAEA have said Iran closed its nuclear weapons development program in 2003, according to U.S. intelligence and the IAEA, but its enrichment activities continue.
In addition to the uranium seizure plan, the U.S. is also considering seizing Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub, according to U.S. government officials. This option could cripple Iran's economy by cutting off its primary oil exports.
Diplomatically, Iran's government rejected Trump's peace plan to end the war, according to research. This rejection may have prompted the consideration of military options as alternatives.
Key unknowns remain, including whether the operation will involve U.S. forces alone, Israeli forces, or a joint mission. The specific timeline for when a decision on the operation will be made is also unclear. The exact locations and security details of Iran's uranium stockpiles are not fully known. How the uranium would be transported out of Iran if seized is another logistical challenge.
Further unknowns include the potential diplomatic or military consequences if the operation is carried out. The operation's feasibility is debated, with experts pointing to vulnerabilities. These factors will influence Trump's decision-making process as he balances risks against strategic objectives.